Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market Real Estate Crash The Next Shoe To Drop – Part II - Chris_Vermeulen
2.The Coronavirus Greatest Economic Depression in History? - Nadeem_Walayat
3.US Real Estate Housing Market Crash Is The Next Shoe To Drop - Chris_Vermeulen
4.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications and AI Mega-trend Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Are Coronavirus Death Statistics Exaggerated? Worse than Seasonal Flu or Not?- Nadeem_Walayat
6.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications, Global Recession and AI Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
7.US Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Debt Climax - James_Quinn
8.Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Britain's FAKE Coronavirus Death Statistics Exposed - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Commodity Markets Crash Catastrophe Charts - Rambus_Chartology
Last 7 days
New Data Shows Shopify Was a Godsend for Mom and Pop During Coronavirus - 18th Jun 20
Low Inflation Makes Powell a Dove. How It Affects Gold? - 18th Jun 20
Stock Market Waterfall Selling in S&P 500 Is Over Now - 18th Jun 20
NASDAQ: Some Historical Insights into Tech Stocks Mania - 18th Jun 20
XLF Financial Sector Stocks ETF May Break Below Price Gap - 18th Jun 20
REOPEN THE SCHOOLS! Kids Going Crazy in Lockdown Britain, Sheffield UK - 18th Jun 20
Stock Market S&P 500 ADL Predictions - 17th Jun 20
Silver is Going to have a Sudden, Massive Move to $50 that will Suprise Everyone - 17th Jun 20
Gold Stocks Investment Strong - 17th Jun 20
Silver Tops Gold in May, Setting up a Summer Surge - 17th Jun 20
Google - Investing in Best Artificial Intelligence Stocks for 2020 and Beyond! - 17th Jun 20
AMD Ryzen XT Refresh Very BAD Value for Money - 20% Price Hike for 2% Boost, 3900xt, 3800xt, 3600xt - 17th Jun 20
8 Rules for Forex Market Beginners - 17th Jun 20
The AI Stocks Mega-trend - Moores Law is NOT Dead! - 16th Jun 20
Gold Stocks Correction and Upcoming Opportunity - 16th Jun 20
Stocks Bulls Beware: A Dark Cloud Is Forming Over Oil Markets - 16th Jun 20
AMD Ryzen Refresh Bad Value for Money - 3800xt 3900xt 3600xt Specs - 16th Jun 20
How to Clip a Budgie / Parakeet Parrot's Wings Flight Feathers: Easy Steps! - 16th Jun 20
XLF Financial Sector Stocks Under Pressure and What It Means - 15th Jun 20
For History Unfolding To Stay Informed, Watch Less TV - 15th Jun 20
Black Lives Matter Protests to Trigger US and UK 2nd Coronavirus Wave - 15th Jun 20
Staying Cautious & Staying Prepared With You Stocks Trading Account - 15th Jun 20
Silver: How to Gauge the Crowd's Mindset - 15th Jun 20
When to Sell Your AI Tech Stocks Investments - 14th Jun 20
Gold and Silver Precious Metals Sector Correction Starts as Risk On and Seasonal Factors Weigh - 14th Jun 20
What Happens When Cars Can “See”? - 14th Jun 20
Rolex Watches — a Store of Value - 14th Jun 20
US and UK Black Lives Matter Protests, Riots and Looting To Trigger 2nd Covid-19 Wave Peak? - 12th Jun 20
US Dollar Cycle Points To New All-time Highs For Gold - 12th Jun 20
Will US Labor Market Recovery Sink Gold? - 12th Jun 20
Stock Market Shift Away from Safety Begins - 12th Jun 20
Gold Silver Ratio - 11th Jun 20
When Profits and Politics Drive Science: The Hazards of Rushing a Coronavirus Vaccine at “Warp Speed” - 11th Jun 20
Gold Sad Truth - 11th Jun 20
Silver’s Apparent Recovery - 11th Jun 20
Unnatural Distortions and the Precious Metals - 11th Jun 20
Perceiving Coronavirus as a Disruptive Technology Accelerating Quantum AI Mega-trend - 11th Jun 20
A 2020 guide to Business Opp Affiliate Marketing - 11th Jun 20
What Huge US Jobs Number Means For Your Market Positions - 10th Jun 20
New Stocks Bull or Same Old One? - 10th Jun 20
Inflation ‘A mirror image of the early 1980s’ - 10th Jun 20
Trump's Final Gamble: From Chinagate to Hybrid Wars - 10th Jun 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

AI Stocks 2020-2035 15 Year Trend Forecast

Stock Market Short-term Top?

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020 Jun 03, 2020 - 12:08 PM GMT

By: Andre_Gratian

Stock-Markets

SPX: Long-term trend – We are in an official bear market

Intermediate trend Concluding initial rally in a downtrend.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends


Daily market analysis of the short-term trend is reserved for subscribers.  If you would like to sign up for a FREE 4-week trial period of daily comments, please go to www.marketurningpoints.com and request a trial.

A Short-term Top?

Important Cycles

The downward pressure of the 45-td cycle (80-cal.days) was minimized by the 36-td cycle (52-cal.days) which made its low on 5/14; but, unless it is inverting, it should have enough left to bring the market down into the end of the week.

Point & Figure Overview of SPX

Re-accumulation at the 3010 level could take the index to about 3070.      

Market Analysis (Charts courtesy of QChart)

SPX-NYA weekly charts 

The disparity of relative strength to the SPX is not confined to IWM.  This week, I am posting NYA vs. SPX to show that NYA (the broadest index), is just as much of a laggard as IWM.  The reason for this is that the large tech stocks have led the recovery from the March low by a wide margin.  These stocks are also included in SPX and are contributing to its relative strength.  Consequently, it is somewhat misleading to look at SPX (and better yet, NDX) as representative of the stock market recovery.

To-date, SPX has retraced a little more than 71% of its decline while NYA has fallen short of 62%. 

SPX daily chart

The blue trend lines are converging and making a wedge pattern, indicating that since mid-April SPX has been decelerating.  However, after a two and a half-week correction into the 36-td low, it managed to make a new high which may just now be in the process of making a short-term top.  The smaller pattern which emerged from that correction is itself making a wedge pattern; so, unless a strong price extension takes place in the next day or two, a reversal is likely into the low of the 45-day cycle due at the end of the week. 

The 200-dma has been slightly surpassed, but the MA is only a loose gauge of the market trend.  Trend lines and support and resistance levels are not necessarily exact either, although they are regularly observed by traders which gives them more legitimacy.  Of all technical tools, I find that P&F charts are among the most beneficial.  Although counts are not always exact, verifying them with oscillators such as SRSI, CCI and others enables us to arrive at much more accurate predictions.

The congestion that formed at the ~2500 base level calls for a minimum move to 3160 which could be achieved right away, buts has a better chance of occurring after the 45-day cycle has made its low.  

SPX hourly chart

I am looking for SPX to complete the move from 2767 and form a short-term top in the vicinity of 3070 before retracing into the end of the week or early the following week.  There are many signs that this top

could occur as early as Monday unless the market opens with exceptional strength. 

The move from 2767 started sluggishly after an a-b-c consolidation, but quickly overcame the former high and continued in a minor channel until negative divergence developed in the CCI.  This brought a correction into the mid-channel line which acted as support, and where another small base quickly formed.  Closing strength on Friday allowed the index to move out of its base to challenge the former minor high.  This could simply be a test of that high or a final move to about 3070-75 before rolling over and starting a decline.   Anything which substantially exceeds these boundaries would indicate that the short-term analysis is flawed and that a new perspective is needed; perhaps that the 45-day cycle has inverted.

UUP (dollar ETF) daily

Last week, I mentioned that UUP was completing a narrow 3-phase consolidation above 27.00 and could be ready to succumb to downward pressure from the bottoming 3mo cycle.  This is what is starting to happen with probably more to go until the end of June.

GDX (Gold miners ETF) daily 

GDX is nearing the end of its run from the March lows.  Some minor consolidation could be followed by a move to 39.00-39.50 before a corrective phase begins.

PAAS (Pan American Silver Corp.) daily

After following GDX since the March lows, PAAS is jumping ahead as it reaches for its own projection of 30-32.

BNO (U.S. Brent oil fund) daily

BNO was driven by the market to push fractionally higher and is waiting for the index to dictate its next short-term reversal

Summary  

As a result of the pressure coming from a combination of cycles, as well as the compelling need to fill the projection target established after the March low, SPX has continued to drive towards its intermediate destination (which could be at least 2160) before the 40-wk cycle forces a severe retracement into mid-July. However, ahead of this final high, one more short-term correction should take place as the 45-day cycle makes its low.

Andre 

FREE TRIAL SUBSCRIPTON

For a FREE 4-week trial, send an email to anvi1962@cableone.net, or go to www.marketurningpoints.com and click on "subscribe". There, you will also find subscription options, payment plans, weekly newsletters, and general information. By clicking on "Free Newsletter" you can get a preview of the latest newsletter which is normally posted on Sunday afternoon (unless it happens to be a 3-day weekend, in which case it could be posted on Monday).

Disclaimer - The above comments about the financial markets are based purely on what I consider to be sound technical analysis principles uncompromised by fundamental considerations. They represent my own opinion and are not meant to be construed as trading or investment advice, but are offered as an analytical point of view which might be of interest to those who follow stock market cycles and technical analysis.

Andre Gratian Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.tssmoney.com - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules

两个人做人爱视频大全-两人做人爱费视频试看